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Albert C. Bemmaor
Professor, Marketing Department

Photo de Albert C. Bemmaor
Curriculum Vitae (pdf)
General Information Research Areas Publications Teaching Other Activities
Education

Ph.D., Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana, 1978 
MBA, Columbia University, New York, 1973 
Ecole Supérieure de Commerce, Marseilles, 1971
Biography
Prior to joining ESSEC Business School in January 1980, Albert Bemmaor was on the faculty of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago. Over the past five decades, he has published regularly in top-tier journals, with a focus on mathematical models of consumer behavior, the adoption of technological innovations and market response models. His work has been applied and extended in a variety of areas, including the diffusion of social networks, geology (i.e., the prediction of natural resources - see the research by Guseo and colleagues at the University of Padua, Italy), economics (i.e., the distribution of medical expenditures in the U.S. - see Aizawa and Fang 2015), medecine (see, e.g. Mennemeyer and colleagues, Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association, Oxford U. Press, 2015 and Guseo Technological Forecasting and Social Change 2016) and hydraulics among others. His diffusion model, the gamma/shifted Gompertz model, at times called "Bemmaor's model" has turned into a classical model of diffusion about 20 years after its development and has become a keyword. Up to now, the model has been adopted by Wolfram Language, the programming language of Mathematica, as well as by ExtraDistr, a package in R and by SAS. His work has been implemented at companies such as Google (see Goerg and colleagues 2015), Microsoft (see Buy-'Til-You-Die BTYDPlus R package by Michael Platzer) and Orange (see, e.g., Scaglione, Giovannetti and Hamoudia, International Journal of Forecasting, 2015).  Albert Bemmaor teaches courses on product management, marketing management and marketing research in the MSc. program and on marketing models in the doctoral program. In 2000, he received a prize from the French Marketing Association (AFM) for his "Outstanding Contribution to Methodology". Albert Bemmaor has an open invitation to visit (Gastprofessor) the University of Vienna in Austria. He has been a member of the Nomination Committee for the Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences on several occasions.   
Research Areas
Areas

Valuing a prototype, a new offering, an advertising medium (press, Internet), valuing new and existing customers based on expected and/or past behavior. Measuring the productivity of marketing expenditures (media advertising, retail promotion).  Capturing response errors in survey data (i.e. stated claims). Mathematical modeling of the diffusion of technological innovations.  


Academic Publications
Books
  PREF: Version 2.0 - a Software for Analyzing Consumer Preferences with Paired Comparisons.  :  , 1999 (http://faculty.essec.fr/ac.bemmaor)


Articles
  "Modeling Purchasing Behavior With Sudden "Death": A Flexible Customer Lifetime Model " (A. Bemmaor, N. Glady), Management Science, May 2012, Vol. 58, Issue 5, p. 1012‑1021 http://bit.ly/niABgB
  "On Banerjee and Bhattacharyya (1976) "A Purchase Incidence Model With Inverse Gaussian Interpurchase Times," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 71, 823-829" (A. Bemmaor, D. Hoppe), Journal of the American Statistical Association, Jun 2008, Vol. 103, Issue 482, p. 894‑895
  "Editorial: The Diffusion of Marketing Science in the Practitioners' Community: Opening the Black Box" (A. Bemmaor, P. Franses), Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, Jul 2005, Vol. 21, Issue 4/5, p. 289‑301
  "Statistical Analysis of Choice Experiments and Surveys" (D. Mcfadden, A. Bemmaor, F. Caro, J. Dominitz, BH. Jun, A. Lewbel, R. Matzkin, F. Molinari, N. Schwarz, R. Willis, J. Winter), Marketing Letters, Apr 2005, Vol. 16, p. 183‑196
  "Market Segmentation Research: Beyond Within and Across Group Differences" (G. Allenby, G. Fennell, A. Bemmaor, V. Bhargava, F. Christen, J. Dawley, P. Dickson, Y. Edwards, M. Garatt, A. Sawyer, R. Staelin, S. Yang), Marketing Letters, Aug 2002, Vol. 13, Issue 3, p. 233‑243
  "The Impact of Heterogeneity and Ill-conditioning on Diffusion Model Parameter Estimates" (A. Bemmaor, J. Lee), Marketing Science, Mar 2002, Vol. 21, Issue 2, p. 209‑220
  "A Multiple-item Model of Paired Comparisons: Separating Chance from Latent Preference" (A. Bemmaor, U. Wagner), Journal of Marketing Research, Nov 2000, Vol. 37, Issue 4, p. 514‑524
  "Discrete and Continuous Representations of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Choice Modeling" (M. Wedel, W. Kamakura, N. Arora, A. Bemmaor, J. Chiang, T. Elrod, R. Johnson, P. Lenk, S. Neslin, C. Poulsen), Marketing Letters, Aug 1999, Vol. 10, Issue 3, p. 219‑232
  "Estimating the Impact of Displays and Other Merchandising Support on Retail Brand Sales: Partial Pooling with Examples" (A. Bemmaor, P. Franses, J. Kippers), Marketing Letters, Feb 1999, Vol. 10, Issue 1, p. 87‑100
  "Predicting Behavior from Intention-to-buy Measures : The Parametric Case" (A. Bemmaor), Journal of Marketing Research, May 1995, Vol. 32, Issue 2, p. 176‑191
  "Effets des réductions de prix et de la publicité sur les ventes en magasins : Un plan factoriel" (A. Bemmaor, D. Mouchoux), Recherche et Applications en Marketing - Sélection Internationale, Mar 1992, Vol. 7, Issue 2, p. 27‑47
  "Editorial: Models of Purchase Timing and Models of Brand Choice: Oulook and Issues" (A. Bemmaor, D. Schmittlein ), International Journal of Research in Marketing , Sep 1991, Vol. 8, Issue 3, p. 163‑168
  "Measuring the Short-term Effect of In-store Promotion and Retail Advertising on Brand Sales : A Factorial Experiment" (A. Bemmaor, D. Mouchoux), Journal of Marketing Research, May 1991, Vol. XXVIII, Issue 2, p. 202‑214
  "Why Does the NBD Model Work? Robustness in Representing Product Purchases, Brand Purchases and Imperfectly Recorded Purchases?" (D. Schmittlein, A. Bemmaor, D. Morrison), Marketing Science, Aug 1985, Vol. 4, Issue 3, p. 255‑266
  "Testing Alternative Econometric Models on the Existence of Advertising Threshold Effect" (A. Bemmaor), Journal of Marketing Research, Aug 1984, Vol. 21, Issue 3, p. 298‑308
  "Durée de Vie des Biens Durables: Modèles et Tests ("Life Duration of Durable Goods: Models and Tests")" (A. Bemmaor), Consommation, Revue de Socio-Economie, Jul 1984, Vol. 31, Issue 3, p. 51‑73
  "Willingness to Supply Human Body Parts: Some Empirical Results" (E. Pessemier, A. Bemmaor, D. Hanssens), Journal of Consumer Research, Dec 1977, Vol. 4, Issue 3, p. 131‑138


Chapters
  Andrew S. C. Ehrenberg ou Le Chantre de la Réplication (Andrew S. C. Ehrenberg or The Eulogy of Replication). In: Les Grands Auteurs en Marketing. 2ème éd., Caen (France) : Editions EMS Management et Société, Alain Jolibert, éd. . 2016, p. 77-94
  "Frank M. Bass : Le Marketing Scientifique". In: Les Grands Auteurs en Marketing. 2ème éd., Caen (France) : Editions EMS Management & Société, Alain Jolibert, éd. . 2016, p. 39-54
  "Implementing the Pareto/NBD Model: A User-Friendly Approach". In: Quantitative Marketing and Marketing Management: Festschrift in honor of Udo Wagner (with N. Glady, D. Hoppe ). Wiesbaden (Germany ) : Springer Gabler, Adamantios Diamantopoulos, Wolfgang Fritz, Lutz Hildebrandt, eds. . 2012, p. 39-49 http://bit.ly/qPumbz
  "Estimating Market-level Multiplicative Models of Promotion Effect with Linearly Aggregated Data: A Parametric Approach". In: Econometric Models in Marketing (with U. Wagner). Amsterdam (Pays-Bas) : JAI, An Imprint of Elsevier Science, Philip Hans Franses, Alan Montgomery, eds. . 2002, p. 165-189
  "Commentary on A. S. C. Ehrenberg's "Theory or Well Grounded Results : Which Comes First ?" " . In: Research Traditions in Marketing. Boston, MA (USA) : Kluwer, Gilles Laurent, Gary L. Lilien, Bernard Pras, eds. . 1994, p. 109-115
  Modeling the Diffusion of New Durable Goods: Word-of-Mouth Effect Versus Consumer Heterogeneity. In: Research Traditions in Marketing. Boston, MA (USA) : Kluwer, Gilles Laurent, Gary L. Lilien, Bernard Pras, eds. . 1994, p. 201-223


Working papers
  "Consumer Information Versus Storage Costs : an Experimental Test" (A. Bemmaor, D. Mouchoux). Essec Research Center, DR‑86001 Jan 86.
  "The Dirichlet Distribution as a Model of Brand Choice: Further Testing " (A. Bemmaor). Essec Research Center, DR‑81012 Oct 81.
  "Stochastic Modeling of Consumer Purchase Behavior: I. Analytical Results" (A. Bemmaor). Essec Research Center, DR‑81006 Jul 81.
  "Stochastic Modeling of Consumer Purchase Behavior.: II Applications " (A. Bemmaor). Essec Research Center, DR‑81007 Jul 81.


Other Publications
Articles published in conference proceedings
  "Zur Prognose des Kaufverhaltens aus Kaufabsichtdaters mit Hilfe des Betabinomial-Modells (Using the Beta-Binomial Distribution to Forecast Behavior From Stated Purchase Intents) ", With U. Wagner. In : Operations Research Proceedings 1988, Papers of the 17th Annual Meeting (DGOR) . Berlin (Germany) : Springer, 1989, p. 418-425
  "Multiperiod Analysis of Purchasing Behavior : Another Look at McConnell's Experimental Data ". In : Product Management, Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Ninth International Seminar in Marketing . Aix-en-Provence (France) : IAE (Institut d'Administration des Entreprises) and FNEGE (Fondation Nationale pour l'Enseignement de la Gestion) , 1982, p. 351-379
  "Comportement d'Achat des Consommateurs: Un Modèle Simple de Choix de Marques avec Dépendance (A Parsimonious Model of Brand Choice with Dependence)". In : Cahiers: Méthodologie de la Recherche en Marketing ,. Lille (France) : FNEGE (Fondation Nationale pour l'Enseignement de la Gestion) and CREE (Centre de Recherche et d'Economie d'Entreprise) , 1981, p. 179 -211
  "Test of a Stochastic Model of Product Usage and Brand Choice ". In : Market Measurement and Analysis, Proceedings of ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Conference, March 26-28, 1979. Boston, MA (U.S.A. ) : Marketing Science Institute, 1980, p. 397-408
  "A Family-Size Dependent Model of Purchase Incidence ". In : Market Measurement and Analysis , Proceedings of ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Conference, March 13-15, 1980 . Providence, RI (U.S.A. ) : TIMS College on Marketing and The Institute of Management Sciences, 1980, p. 63-67
  "Econometric Estimation of Halo Effect: Single vs. Simultaneous Equation Models ", With J. Huber. In : Advances in Consumer Research , Annual Conference of the Association for Consumer Research. Provo, Utah (U.S.A. ) : Association for Consumer Research , 1978, p. 477-480
  "An Empirical Study of the Temporal Aggregation Bias in Stochastic Models of Brand Choice ". In : Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, Annual Conference of the American Statistical Association,. Washington, D.C. (U.S.A. ) : American Statistical Association, 1978, p. 842-845
  "Specification Error Tests with Applications in Marketing Research ". In : Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, Annual Conference of the American Statistical Association ,. Washington, D.C. (U.S.A. ) : American Statistical Association , 1977, p. 793-798


Book reviews
  "Die Entwicklung und Empirische Validierung eines Stochastischen Kaufverhaltensmodells (Development and Empirical Test of a Stochastic Consumer Purchasing Model)". (A. Taudes) International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1986, vol. 3, p. 135-138
  "Vollstochastische Kaufverhaltensmodelle, Ihr Beitrag zur Analyse realer Märkte (Complete Stochastic Models of Consumer Purchasing Behavior, Their Contribution to the Analysis of Real Markets)". (U. Wagner) International Journal of Research in Marketing, 1986, vol. 3, p. 135-138


Teaching at ESSEC
Teaches "Product Management" (in English) and the "Marketing Management" core course in the MSc in Management program (in French and in English) and "Marketing Models 2" in the doctoral program.  
Awards and Distinctions


On several occasions, member of the Nomination Committee for The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. 
Award received from the French Marketing Association (AFM) for his "Outstanding Contribution to Methodology".
Top 10% authors over the past 50 years at Journal of Marketing Research (Source: "The Topical History of JMR," JMR, Feb' 2014).
Ranked seventh in centrality parameter in an influential community among more than 30,000 scholars in quantitative marketing (Customers Needs and Solutions, 2015, 91-104.
Keynote speaker (with Daniel Martin, Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern U.) at a Workshop on "PSYchology, Consumer Heterogeneity, Information and Communication," Maison des Sciences de l'Homme de Paris Nord, Saint Denis, France, Dec. 8 and 9, 2016. See  
http://ama-academics.communityzero.com/elmar?go=6110893 (PsyCHIC Workshop)
Open invitation to visit the University of Vienna, Austria.


Scientific Activities
Conference Presentations
  "Capturing Chance Effects in Pairwise Product Tests : A Stochastic Model for Preference Ratings", (with U. Wagner). Classification, Data Analysis and Knowledge Organization : 20th Annual Conference, Freiburg, Allemagne, 06 Mar 1996

"Modeling New-Product Sales in a Test Market: An Individual-Level Analysis,"  PsyCHIC (Psychology, Consumer Heterogeneity, Information, and Communication) Workshop, Maison des Sciences de l'Homme Paris Nord, December 8-9, 2016. (Guest Speaker) 

"Customer Lifetime Value in a Noncontractual Setting: A Reappraisal," ESSEC-HEC-INSEAD Seminar, 37th Anniversary, ESSEC Business School, March 11, 2016.  

"Forecasting the Adoption of New Products from Intent Data: Model and Evidence," Third German-French-Austrian Conference on Quantitative Marketing, ESSEC Business School, September 20-22, 2007.  Also presented at Humboldt University of Berlin, January 28, 2008.

"Modeling Attrition in Customer Base Analysis," (with Daniel Hoppe), Third German-French-Austrian Conference on Quantitative Marketing, ESSEC Business School, September 20-22, 2007.

"Diffusion des Nouvelles Technologies: Modèles et Validations,", Quatrième séminaire de M@rsouin (Môle Armoricain de Recherche sur la Société de l'information et les Usages de l'INternet), Trégastel, Brittany, May 11-12, 2006.

"Choice Modeling and Stochastic Behavior" (with Donald R. Lehmann and Peter T. L. Popkowski-Leszczyc), Conference honoring Frank Bass, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, June 18-19, 2005. 

"Discriminating Between the Word-of-Mouth Hypothesis Versus the Consumer Heterogeneity-in-Propensity-to-Adopt Hypothesis as Drivers of Diffusion in a New Product Growth Model for Consumer Durables: Statistical Test and Empirical Evidence," Marketing Science Conference, June 23-26, 2004, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (upon invitation).

"Marketing Science and Marketing Practice: Are They Compatible?" (with Philip Hans Franses), Opening presentation, Conference on "Bridging the Gap Between Marketing Models and Managers," Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands, November 21, 2003.

"Is Time to Adoption of a New Durable Good Random or Deterministic? A Statistical Test and Empirical Evidence," Seminar given at the School of Management, University of Texas at Dallas, August 8, 2003.

"An Analysis of Course Evaluation Instruments and the Administration of Course Evaluations," (with Antonella Caru, Sam Craig, Sylvie Llosa, Juan Martinez, Robert Shoemaker and Philip Stern), International Teachers Program, Stern School of Business, New York University, July 11, 2001.

"Including a Reference Stimulus in the Scaling of Consumers' Preferences in Product Tests," Seminar given at The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, January 16, 2001. Also presented in a seminar given at the University of Vienna, Austria on March 15, 2001.

"Capturing the Heterogeneity of Consumers' Preferences With Repeat Paired Comparisons: Models, Data and Sample Size Requirements" (with David Niddam and Radouane Sidky), Second French-German Workshop on Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Institut d'Administration des Entreprises, University of Montpelier, September 17-18, 1999. Also presented in a Workshop on Advanced Methods of Marketing Research, Erasmus University, Rotterdam, November 4-5, 1999.

"Assessing the Impact of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Models of Diffusion of Technological Innovations: Parameter Estimates and Forecasting Accuracy," (with Janghyuk Lee) Marketing Science Conference, Syracuse University School of Management, May 20-23,1999. Also presented at the ESSEC/HEC/INSEAD seminar, INSEAD, Fontainebleau, October 14, 1999.

"How Grounded are Individual-Level Purchase Intent Data?" (with Jeanine Kippers, Karl Krycha, Daniel Ropers, and Jean-Marc Xuereb), Institute of Management, University of Vienna, Austria, June 26, 1997. Also presented at the ESSEC/HEC/INSEAD seminar, Fontainebleau, December 17, 1996.

"Estimating Preferences from Ratings in Single and Multiple Paired Comparison Product Tests" (with Udo Wagner), First French-German Workshop on Quantitative Methods in Marketing, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany, May 1-3, 1996.

"Capturing Chance Effects in Pairwise Product Tests : A Stochastic Model of Preference Ratings" (with Udo Wagner), 20th Annual Conference on Classification, Data Analysis and Knowledge Organization, University of Freiburg, Germany, March 6-8, 1996.

"Forecasting the Dynamics of the Sales of New Packaged Goods: A Preliminary Report," (with Gilles Gros and Abel P. Jeuland) Institute of Management, University of Vienna, Austria (June 20, 1995). Also presented at the Institute of Marketing, University of Innsbruck, Austria (June 23, 1995).

"Predicting Whether and When to Buy From Intents Data: Interaction Versus Additive Models" (with Karl Krycha), Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (March 24, 1995).


Affiliations and Academic Responsibilities


Member of the Editorial Board of International Journal of Research in Marketing (1988 -2009). 

Occasional reviewer for Journal of Marketing Research, Marketing ScienceManagement ScienceJournal of MarketingInternational Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Product and Brand Management, Journal of ForecastingJournal of Interactive Marketing, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics (Oxford U. Press), Marketing Letters, International Journal of Research in Marketing and Computational Statistics and Data Analysis.  

Ranked among the top reviewers for Marketing Science in 2002. http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/CENTERS/MKS/ and Recherche et Aplications en Marketing (1990-'92).

Member of the Scientific Committee of Recherche et Applications en Marketing (from its inception in 1999 to 2000).

Member of the Editorial Board of Recherche et Applications en Marketing (from its inception in 1985 to 2014).

Member of the Editorial Board of Business Research (BuR), the journal of the German Academic Association for Business Research (from its inception in 2008 to 2014).  

Reviewer  of research proposals submitted to the Swiss National Science Foundation (Fonds National Suisse de la Recherche Scientifique) and to the Belgian National Foundation of Scientific Research (F.R.S.-F.N.R.S.) and the Research Foundation - Flanders (Fonds voor wetenschappelijk onderzoek: FWO).

Member of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS). 

Member of the Econometric Society. 

Member of the American Statistical Association (ASA). 

Member of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (IMS). 

Member of Association Française du Marketing (AFM). 

Listed in the Marquis Who's Who in American Education, 6th Edition, 2004-2005

Faculty evaluation committees: Invited to provide reviews to faculty evaluation committees both nationally and at the international level   

External referee of thesis proposals.   

Member of Thesis Committees:

Katia Campo, U. of Antwerp, Belgium, 1998. Initial position: K.U. Leuven, Belgium
Niek Althuizen, Erasmus U. Rotterdam, 2006. Initial position: ESSEC Business School
Yuri Peers, Erasmus U. Rotterdam, 2011. Initial position:  Waikato Management School, New Zealand
Mehdi Nezami, HEC Paris, 2016. Initial position: U. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 

Thesis Chair:  
Li Zheng, ESSEC Business School, 2014. Thesis Title: "The Diffusion of Internet Use Across China: Spatiotemporal Models with Policy Implications". Initial position: University of Leeds, UK  (Senior Research Fellow)

Thesis Co-Chair (with Nicolas Glady): 
Shantanu Mullick, ESSEC Business School, 2016. Thesis Title: "Three Essays on Dynamic Models With Applications to Marketing and Finance." Initial Position: Technical University at Eindhoven, The Netherlands. (Assistant Professor)   


Consulting & Other Activities
Consultant to a leading market research firm (1988-, 2005- ), and to a leading service firm (1994).

Professional Experience


Assistant Professor, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago, 1978-1980. 
Visiting Scholar, Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Summer 1982. 
Guest Editor of a special issue of International Journal of Research in Marketing on "The Analysis of Panel Data" (Vol. 8, No. 3, 1991), with D.C. Schmittlein 
Quoted as a leading contributor to major scholarly journals among academics across all the management sciences in France (1998, Organization Studies, Vol. 19, No. 5, pp. 863-81). The study is based on a 12-year period of Social Sciences Citation Index (1981-92). 
Chairman of the Selection Committee of the Best Article published in International Journal of Research in Marketing in 1998. Member of the same Selection Committee in 2005. 
Award received for his "Outstanding Contribution to Methodology" from the French Marketing Association (AFM), 2000. 
Visiting Professor, Institute of Management, University of Vienna, Austria, March 2001 and May 2004 (May 10 through May 30). 
Co-organizer of a conference on "Bridging the Gap Between Marketing Models and Managers", Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands (November 21, 2003), with P. H. Franses. 
Co-organizer of the 25th Anniversary of the ESSEC/HEC/INSEAD seminar, Cergy-Pontoise (March 4, 2004), with G. Laurent and M. Sarvary. The seminar celebrated its 35th Anniversary at INSEAD in Fontainebleau on March 14, 2014. (Organizers: Hilke Plassmann, Albert Bemmaor, Selin Atalay and Francesca Sotgiu).   
Quoted in Business Marketing, December 1, 1997 and in the Digital Times, South Korea, June 21, 2004. 
Guest Editor of a special issue of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry on "Bridging the Gap Between Academic Research in Marketing and Practitioners' Concerns" (Vol. 21, Nos. 4 and 5, 2005), with P. H. Franses. 
Quoted as a leading contributor to marketing science (2005, Journal of Public Policy and Marketing, Vol. 24, No. 1, 145-9). See also the presentation entitled "A Historical Interpretive Personalized Analysis of Marketing Science in Europe" by J-B. Steenkamp, 2006. 
Co-organizer of the Ninth Seminar on Transportation, entitled "Discrete Choice Models: Applications to Marketing and to Transportation" (with A. de Palma and N. Picard), ESSEC Business School, Cergy-Pontoise, May 9, 2007.  
Co-organizer of the Third German-French-Austrian Conference on Quantitative Marketing (with L. Hildebrandt and U. Wagner), ESSEC Business School, Cergy-Pontoise, September 20-22, 2007.

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