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Home > Faculty > Professors' profiles > Guillaume Chevillon

Guillaume Chevillon
Assistant Professor,  Information Systems and Decision Sciences Department

Photo de Guillaume Chevillon
Curriculum Vitae (pdf)
General Information Research Areas Publications Teaching Other Activities
Education


D.Phil. in Economics, University of Oxford, UK

M.Phil. in Economics, University of Oxford/Brasenose College, UK 

Ingenieur des Mines, Ecole des Mines de Paris
Biography


1999-2006 Adjunct Lecturer at IEP Paris (French Institute of Political Studies, aka Sciences-Po U), HEC, ENA, University Paris-Dauphine, University of Oxford; teaching Econometrics, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting Theory, Macroeconomics, Statistics.
2003-6 Research Fellow at OFCE, Department of Applied Economics of Sciences-Po University.


personal webpage: http://guillaume.chevillon.free.fr/
Research Areas
Areas


Time Series Econometrics : finite sample analysis, trending behavior, breaks, long memory, cointegration.

Economic Forecasting: Multi-step forecasting, Model choice, robustness, forecast evaluation. Applications include oil prices, exchange rates, Emerging economies output, French external trade.

Macroeconomics: Models with learning, adaptive expectations, monetary policy, New Keynesian Phillips Curve, Business cycles

Empirical Finance: Power delegation in shareholder meetings


On-going Projects
Inference in models with adaptive learning, with an application to the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (pdf, with Sophocles Mavroeidis, Brown University, and Michael Massmann, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Academic Publications
Articles
  "Direct Multi-Step Estimation and Forecasting" (, G. Chevillon).. Journal of Economic Surveys, Sept. 2007, Vol. 21, Issue 4, p. 746‑785
  "Analyse Econométrique et Compréhension des Erreurs de Prévision" (, G. Chevillon).. Revue de l'OFCE, Oct. 2005, Vol. 95, p. 327‑356
  "Non-parametric Direct Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes" (G. Chevillon, D. Hendry).. International Journal of Forecasting, Apr. 2005, Vol. 21, p. 201‑218


Chapters
  Impact du taux de change sur le tourisme en France. In: Artus, P & L. Fontagné, Conseil d'Analyse Economique. Evolution Recente du commerce extérieur Français (with X. Timbeau). Paris (France) : La Documentation Française, 2006, p. 99-108


Professional Publications
Articles
  "Brouillard autour des puits de pétrole" (G. Chevillon, C. Rifflart).. Lettre de l'OFCE, Oct. 2004, Issue 253, p. 1‑4
  "Les tribulations de la parité euro/dollar," (G. Chevillon, Dap).. Lettre de l'OFCE, June 2004, Issue 252, p. 1‑4


Chapters
  Perspectives de l'économie Française à l'horizon 2009. In: Joël Bourdin, sénateur. Rapport d'information du Sénat n° 70 (with E. Heyer, M. Lemoine). Paris (France) : Délégation du Sénat pour la planification , 2004, p. 138-203
  Perspectives de l'économie Française à l'horizon 2008. In: Joël Bourdin, sénateur. Rapport d'information du Sénat n° 69 (with V. Chauvin, E. Heyer). Paris (France) : Délégation du Sénat pour la planification , 2003, p. 132-188


Working papers
  "Inference in the Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends" (, G. Chevillon). Essec Research Center, DR‑07021 oct. 07.
  "Physical Market Determinants of the Price of Crude Oil and the Market Premium" (G. Chevillon, C. Rifflart). Essec Research Center, DR‑07020 sept. 07.
  "Multi-step Forecasting in Unstable Economies: Robustness Issues in the Presence of Location Shifts" Oxford Economic Working Papers, 257 févr. 06.
  "Weak trends for estimation and forecasting in finite samples" Oxford Economic Working Paper, 210 sept. 04.


Other Publications
Press articles
  "Buts et Abus d'une Constitution". Libération, 24 sept. 2004, p. 40-40


Teaching at ESSEC
 PhD:

   - Decision Science, Management & Marketing concentrations: Econometrics
   - Economics concentration: Time Series (macroeconometrics)

 MBA: Financial Econometrics 

 Undergraduate: Business Statistics 
Other Teaching Activities
for past teaching and online documentation, see personal webpage.
Awards and Distinctions

Research grant, Europlace Institute of Finance (in collaboration), 2007, Paris.


Best core papers performance in the MPhil in Economics, 1999, Oxford.

Scientific Activities
Conference Presentations


Weak trends papers: 2005 North American Winter meeting of the Econometric Society; CREST, April 2005;  Kaiserslautern workshop of the 2005 Heidelberg NBER/NSF Time Series conference; ESEM 2006 Vienna; 2006 Montreal NBER/NSF Time Series Conference; 2006 Journée d'Econométrie at Paris-X-Nanterre/EconomiX; 2006 LACEA-LAMES meeting in Mexico; 2006 All China Economics Conference in Hong Kong; 2007 Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometrics Society, Taipei; ESEM 2007, Budapest; Brown University Econometrics Seminar, Nov 2007, International Symposium on Forecasting, Nice June 2008.

Non-parametric Direct Multi-Step Estimation for Forecasting Economic Processes: Nuffield College, 2002, Irish Economic Association 2003 Annual Conference, OFCE 2003.

Inference in Models with Learning: Conference in the Honour of David F. Hendry, Oxford, August 2007, Théories et Méthodes de la Macroéconomie (T2M), Cergy-Pontoise, Maastricht U seminar, Duke U seminar (by S. Mavroeidis), Ohio State U seminar (by S. Mavroeidis), Netherlands Econometric Study Group, Tilburg, ESAM Wellington, FEMES Singapore, NBER summer instiute (by S. Mavroeidis)

Affiliations and Academic Responsibilities

 

Afiliate research CREST-INSEE, Macroeconomics lab.

 

also:

Associate Member, Economics Department, University of Oxford

Fellow, Euro Area Business Cycle Network

Affiliate Researcher, OFCE/center for Economic Analysis & Forecasting of Sciences-Po University (National Political Science Foundation)

Member, Econometric Society, American Economic Association.


Consulting & Other Activities

Referee for:

Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Revue Economique, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Journal of Economic Surveys, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.


Professional Experience

2003-6: Economist at OFCE, the center for Economic Analysis & Forecasting of Sciences-Po University (National Political Science Foundation)

2000-2: Research assistant for Prof. D. F. Hendry, as part of ESRC-funded project 'Modelling, Forecasting and Policy in the Evolving Macro-economy'

Jan-June 1998: Intern, SNCF (French Railways)

1997: Summer intern, International Finance Corporation (World bank group) 
Useful Links
Information Systems and Decision Sciences
Personal Links
Personal webpage
Contact
E-mail
Tel: 33 (0) 1 34 43 36 44

ESSEC Business School
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